Leaders Move The Odds | Episode 22

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Does good leadership equal good results? Not on any given day.

In this solo episode of The Private Leadership Reset, Ryan looks at the scoreboard trap: what happens when leaders use results as the only proof they can trust their own judgment.

A strong leader in a falling market can look weak. A weak leader in a rising market can look brilliant. Both learn the wrong lesson. Ryan walks through what the research says leadership actually moves, why we judge decisions by their outcomes even when we know better, and how a bad quarter turns into internal negotiation. That means second-guessing, hedging, and leading from doubt instead of clarity.

He closes with two scorecards leaders can use every week. One asks whether you led well. The other asks whether it landed.

In this episode:

  • Why results feel objective and still leave the picture incomplete
  • Gallup’s finding that managers account for at least 70% of the variance in team engagement
  • Nick Bloom and John Van Reenen’s World Management Survey, and how management practices relate to productivity gaps
  • Annie Duke’s idea of “resulting” and Pete Carroll’s goal-line pass call in Super Bowl XLIX
  • Baron and Hershey’s 1988 outcome-bias study, and its 2023 pre-registered replication with nearly 700 people
  • Why a good quarter can be as risky as a bad one
  • What happened when one of Ryan’s decisions was overturned, and how the team felt the standard slip
  • Scorecard one, Did I lead well: what did I know, what did I decide and where did it come from, what was in my control, would I decide the same way knowing only what I knew then
  • Scorecard two, Did it land: what happened, what does the result tell me that I couldn’t have known, what will I adjust

Reflection question: Think of the last result you were proud of. If you took the number away, would you still be proud of how you led?

Take the Leadership Internal Negotiation Assessment: https://ryanwattscoaching.com/friction

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